USA & Talibans: USA Changing Colors & Policies

Militants affiliated to the outlawed Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been on the run for sometime now after losing their strongholds in Swat and the rest of Malakand region, South Waziristan, Frontier Region Bannu and parts of the tribal areas of Kurram, Khyber, Mohmand and Darra Adamkhel. Recently, they lost almost all of Bajaur due to renewed and aggressive military operations in Mahmond and Charmang and had to relocate to relatively secure places in the adjoining Mohmand Agency.

But if the latest official claims about the killing of three top militants’ commanders, TTP deputy head Maulana Faqir Mohammad, Qari Ziaur Rahman and Omar Rahman (alias Fateh), are to be believed, their new hideouts also proved insecure in the face of airstrikes by helicopter gunships.

The Taliban evicted from Swat, Buner, Shangla, Malakand Agency and the two Dir districts first sought refuge in Bajaur and then relocated to Mohmand and certain districts in the downcountry. Likewise, their fellow fighters, after losing their strongholds in South Waziristan and Frontier Region Bannu, mostly fled to North Waziristan, where an uncertain peace agreement between the government and non-TTP militants led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur is still intact.

The uprooted Taliban militants from Khyber, Kurram and Darra Adamkhel sought sanctuaries in Orakzai Agency, where government presence is almost non-existent. Orakzai has reportedly attracted fleeing militants from other places too due to its strategic location and remoteness. The Tirah valley in Khyber Agency has become the favoured hideout of all kinds of militants, ranging from TTP cadres to those affiliated to Mangal Bagh’s Lashkar-e-Islam and his rival Ustad Mahboobul Haq’s Ansarul Islam. The once quiet scenic valley is now a battleground for armed men competing for space and influence.

Talking to members of the foreign media flown to Bajaur recently to enable them to see the gains the security forces had made in the militants’ stronghold of Damadola in Mahmond area, Maj Gen Tariq Khan, the inspector general of the Frontier Corps, mentioned Orakzai and Tirah as likely new targets of military action. However, full-fledged military operations of the kind seen in Swat, Bajaur and South Waziristan are unlikely in Orakzai and Tirah. Limited action is likely in these places to push back the militants and deny them unchallenged control of ungoverned territory.

Similarly, despite US demands, major military operation is unexpected in North Waziristan in the foreseeable future. Though military spokesman Maj Gen Athar Abbas had said that no new offensive was planned for the next six months to a year in North Waziristan, or anywhere else in the tribal areas, this timeframe too seems more of a general statement and not part of an actual plan. The military high command would not like to open new fronts, and instead consolidate the troops’ positions in the existing areas of operations to enable the civil administration to eventually take control of the situation.

There was the glimpse of a similar policy recently in Bajaur’s Mamond area bordering Afghanistan. Army soldiers began pulling out from Mamond once the militants were evicted and the pro-government lashkar, or armed volunteer force, had been raised and strengthened. Brandishing guns and showing camaraderie with the troops, the lashkar presented an impressive sight as they gathered at Inayat Killay during the visit of the foreign journalists to Bajaur. No doubt it was a stage-managed show, but not long ago only the militants could organise such an intimidating show of force.

The regular troops withdrawn from Mamond were replaced by the paramilitary Frontier Corps and the Bajaur Levies, while the political administration of Bajaur has now been tasked to revive government institutions in the conflict-hit area. This isn’t going to be easy if one were to compare the situation with the districts of Swat and Lower Dir, in which the transition from military to civilian control has been slow and where the militants have been making their presence felt through occasional suicide bombings. The militants could try to stage a comeback in Bajaur, particularly in Mamond and Charmang, by sending suicide bombers to attack the security forces and the lashkar and through targeted killing of anti-Taliban tribal elders.

Bajaur’s Salarzai tribe, which was the first one to raise a lashkar against the militants, knows pretty well the price it will have to pay for standing up to the Taliban. It suffered 51 deaths in suicide bombings and roadside bomb attacks and the tribe’s armed volunteers are still required to guard their villages and roads.

The mountainous and porous border between Bajaur and Kunar is another challenge, with Pakistani and Afghan Taliban easily moving across the Durand Line to seek refuge and mount attacks. Maj Gen Tariq Khan, the Frontier Corps inspector general, has been accusing the governor of the neighbouring Afghan province of Kunar, Fazlullah Wahidi, of supporting militants who are active in Bajaur. It is strange, though, that he is alone in making this accusation as neither the military high command nor the Pakistani government and its foreign ministry has specifically accused Governor Wahidi of funding and sheltering the Bajaur militants. (Mr Wahidi lived for years in Peshawar running a German-funded non-governmental organisation.)

It would be odd if the US military, which has a strong presence in Kunar, knew this and still did nothing to stop Governor Wahidi from pursuing such a policy. In fact, it appears unbelievable that an Afghan governor is able to do things that harm the spirit of the US strategy based on increased cooperation between the Nato and Pakistani security forces to deny space to militants on both sides of the border.

For 18 months or so now, the security forces have been busy trying to defeat the militants and stabilising Bajaur. Almost a year ago also, there were muted celebrations that Bajaur has been won back and government functionaries started advising displaced Bajauris to return home. It was bad advice and before long the returnees were again uprooted and on the road to makeshift relief camps in Dir Lower, Peshawar and Nowshera as a new round of fighting started in parts of Bajaur.

Many tribal households have now been displaced more than once and are thus wary of returning to Bajaur. In any case, the destroyed infrastructure, damaged houses and the new security guidelines banning reconstruction near the main roads and rebuilding of certain villages are forbidding enough for Bajauris to think of returning in the near future. The sufferings of the internally displaced persons will continue to haunt the country for years to come.

One issue that hasn’t received the attention it deserved is the fate of the more than 2,000 suspected militants and their supporters apprehended in different parts of the NWFP and FATA and now in the custody of the security forces. Most were captured last year during the Swat offensive (some had been arrested earlier), and yet none of them have been put on trial. Special anti-terrorism courts haven’t been set up to try the accused. The military authorities want the detained people transferred to the civil administration, but the process is getting delayed due to unexplained reasons.

The Shariah-based judicial system promised under the Nizam-e-Adl regulation for Malakand division by the ANP-PPP coalition government also hasn’t been put in place. Lawyers in Swat recently protested the delay and demanded the setting up of Darul Qaza where appeals against the judgement of the lower courts, or Qazi courts, could be made. The establishment of a responsive system of justice is the key to reassuring the people of Swat and Malakand and stabilising the region, because this was the slogan that Maulana Sufi Mohammad’s Tanzim-e- Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) raised when it demanded Shariah, and in the process mobilised and radicalised the population.

The militants are no doubt in disarray and the TTP is no longer able to operate and pose a major security threat. But the state needs to do a lot more to improve conditions of life for the people by making the system of government and justice responsive to the needs of the population. This could create conditions to prevent a comeback by the militants.

By: Rahimullah Yusufzai