Viktor Yanukovych's campaign was celebrating an absolute victory while Yuliya Tymoshenko refused to concede defeat, saying that it was too early to call the result.

KIEV: Ukraine faced the prospect of renewed political confrontation on the streets after exit polls predicted that the man closely allied to Moscow was heading for victory in the fiercely contested presidential election last night.

According to exit polls published immediately after voting ended, Yuliya Tymoshenko, the glamorous, firebrand leader of the Orange Revolution and Prime Minister, was narrowly beaten by Viktor Yanukovych, her bitter rival.

The margin of defeat, however, was as little as 3 percentage points, paving the way for a potential challenge in the courts — and in the streets, if her campaign alleges widespread ballot fraud.

Two polls gave her 45.5 per cent against 48.7 per cent for Mr Yanukovych, while two others put him at between 4 and 5 percentage points ahead. All four polls gave the election to Mr Yanukovych, and the first official figures, based on just over 25 per cent of the votes counted, put him eight points ahead.

Mr Yanukovych’s campaign was celebrating “an absolute victory”. His political aide, Anna German, said: “That leaves Tymoshenko with no chance. She will get nothing in the courts.”

“I will do everything to ensure that citizens of Ukraine — irrespective of where in the country they live — feel comfortable and calm in a stable country,” Mr Yanukovych told his supporters in Kiev after the polls closed. He called on his rival to resign as Prime Minister.

Ms Tymoshenko refused to concede defeat, saying that it was too early to call the result. She urged supporters to “try to protect every vote, because this is what is going to determine the future of Ukraine”.

Her campaign chief, Oleksander Turchynov, added: “The result of the majority of exit polls are within the margin of statistical error. Conclusions about who the victor is can be made only on the basis of the real results of the Central Election Commission.”

Ms Tymoshenko, 49, threatened last week to lead a second Orange Revolution after accusing Mr Yanukovych of preparing massive ballotrigging to steal the presidency. With tensions soaring, there are fears that the contest will spill over into violence after the two sides accused each other of bussing in thousands of supporters for demonstrations.

Hundreds of Mr Yanukovych’s supporters were gathering outside key government buildings in Kiev last night as well as the Central Election Commission. The Interior Ministry disclosed that his Party of Regions had submitted plans to gather 50,000 people outside the election commission for a demonstration today.

The election had been billed as a verdict on the pro-Western revolution led by Ms Tymoshenko and her former Orange ally, Viktor Yushchenko, against Mr Yanukovych’s fraudulent, Kremlin-backed victory in 2004. History may now repeat itself if the ballot-box verdict is challenged on the streets.

Mr Yanukovych, 59, had been the favourite to win the presidency since leading the first round of voting on January 17 with 35 per cent; 10 percentage points more than Ms Tymoshenko. She had been seen as struggling to make up the gap, but a late surge in support put her within reach.

The next few days will be critical in determining whether the country plunges into a new bout of instability. The verdicts of the international observers, expected today, will have an important impact.

Victory for Mr Yanukovych would confirm a remarkable political comeback after the humiliation of the Orange Revolution. It would also tilt Ukraine back towards Russia’s sphere of influence, after the relentlessly pro-European course set under President Yushchenko.

For his opponents, it would signal the restoration of an authoritarian cronyism that dominated post-Soviet Ukraine. Mr Yanukovych has never apologised for the ballot-rigging and insisted defiantly in a recent interview with The Times that he had been elected legitimately.

American political consultants worked hard to soften his image as a Soviet-era factory boss, but Mr Yanukovych’s leaden speaking style meant he would never compete on charisma with the sleekly persuasive Ms Tymoshenko. Instead, his campaign focused on his reputation as an effective manager who knew how to get the slumping economy moving again.

Mr Yanukovych’s power base is in Russian-speaking eastern and southern Ukraine, where a heavy turnout was reported throughout the day, while Ms Tymoshenko’s greatest support is in the nationalist west.

The battle for power has been exceptionally vitriolic, even by Ukrainian standards. The candidates have poured abuse on each other, with Ms Tymoshenko repeatedly raising her opponent’s criminal past and Mr Yanukovych dismissing her as being better suited to kitchen duties than running the country.

Ms Tymoshenko presented her opponent as “defender of the interests of oligarchs and criminals”. Her campaign literature made repeated reference to the fact that Mr Yanukovych had been jailed twice in his youth after being convicted of assault and robbery, and taunted him for his coarse manners and apparent difficulties in speaking Ukrainian.

‘She’s simply a woman. She must go to the kitchen’

Her on him

“I ask you not to allow Yanukovych to rape our democracy, our election and our country!” — on proposed changes to electoral law

“He just thinks that kangaroos live in both of them” — accusing her rival of being unable to distinguish between Austria and Australia

“The studio is empty, but you can smell the whiff of fear. I do not want a banal coward to be the leader of this country” — in a TV debate after Mr Yanukovych, right, backed out

Him on her

“This is someone who delights in swimming in mud” — responding to claims from Ms Tymoshenko that he is trying to steal the election

“As Prime Minister, she must carry responsibility for her every word. And if she’s simply a woman, then she must go to the kitchen and show off her caprices there” — refusing Ms Tymoshenko’s demand for one-on-one debates.

“Viktor Yanukovych will not take part in a championship of lies organised by Yuliya Tymoshenko” — Yanukovych ally Anna German, explaining why he refused to attend the TV debate

“If people go [to the protests], it will just be a handful, lovers of the same kind of meals that Tymoshenko loves to cook: filth, lies and slander” — on his rival’s threat to stage massive street protests in the event of electoral fraud

The President, on both of them

“We can say goodbye to our democracy, our independence and our sovereignty” — outgoing President Yushchenko predicts a future with either Ms Tymoshenko or Mr Yanukovych as President.